Anticipated Breakthrough: Global Climate Agreement Expected at COP28 on Thursday

DUBAI, United Arab EmiratesOn Thursday, countries are on the verge of finalizing an agreement to establish an international fund for aiding communities in rebuilding from climate-induced disasters, marking a positive development on the opening day of the U.N. climate talks.

The hosts of COP28 in Dubai unveiled a draft agreement, incorporating recommendations adopted by a few countries earlier this month. Notably, the draft includes a provision, at the insistence of the United States, stipulating that contributions to the fund are voluntary.

According to five diplomats from European and African nations, speaking anonymously to POLITICO about the negotiations, the draft deal is likely to be adopted at the summit’s commencement in Dubai. However, the specific amount of money the fund should contain and its funding sources are yet to be determined. The current draft “invites” developed nations to take the lead in providing financial resources for the fund, but firm pledges are awaited.

A successful deal on the first day would resolve a longstanding point of contention, allowing delegates to shift their focus to addressing the root cause of climate change: the burning of fossil fuels. Such an outcome would be a positive signal for a conference facing challenges from geopolitical shifts, a resilient fossil fuel industry, and concerns raised by climate activists regarding a major petro-state hosting the event.

However, the final agreement among nearly 200 participating countries remains pending. The United States, a staunch opponent of financial redress for climate change damage, has not officially confirmed approval of the deal. Nonetheless, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry affirmed the Biden administration’s support for the fund, emphasizing their active efforts in its creation.

Kerry proposed various methods to raise private capital for the fund, potentially overcoming likely Republican opposition to allocating funds from the U.S. Treasury. He also stressed that the U.S., despite being the largest historical contributor to climate pollution, cannot be held legally responsible for climate-related disasters.

If countries agree on the fund’s design, attention will shift to fundraising strategies. Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the U.N. Climate Change office, emphasized the need for concrete financial commitments, stating that “table scraps won’t cut it.” An alliance of small island nations suggested a minimum of $100 billion for the fund’s first four years, while Denmark proposed at least $200 million from governments at the summit.

The U.S. and EU have advocated for broadening the donor base beyond traditional wealthy countries, urging China to contribute. However, Beijing has maintained its position, citing existing contributions through bilateral programs and South-South cooperation.

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